RBA inflation warning: another rate rise?

Australian business owners face renewed uncertainty over borrowing costs after Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser warned the inflation outlook was “materially worse” than the bank had forecast.

Speaking in Sydney on Wednesday, Hauser pointed to higher oil prices, growing technology investment and persistent domestic cost pressures. He also raised concerns that some businesses were beginning to accept inflation above the RBA's target as the new normal.

His comments raise the prospect of another interest-rate increase when the RBA announces its next decision on 3 November. A rise remains a possibility, rather than a confirmed outcome.

The difficulty is that parts of the economy are already slowing. Hauser acknowledged subdued consumer spending, an easing labour market and weak household confidence. The bank must weigh the risk of persistent inflation against the damage further tightening could cause.

For business owners, that could mean pressure from both directions: higher repayments on variable-rate debt and customers becoming more cautious with their money.

It makes this a useful time to revisit cash-flow forecasts. What happens if repayments increase while sales soften? How much room is there to absorb higher supplier costs before margins become uncomfortable?

Following up overdue invoices, reviewing expenses and understanding which products and services deliver a worthwhile margin can help owners prepare for a tougher trading period.

Would another rate rise change your hiring, investment or growth plans?

Sources: RBA — Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's speech transcript, 21 October 2026 · ABC News — RBA deputy warns inflation outlook 'materially worse' · RBA — Board meeting calendar